Park West Subdivision 1st QT Home Sales Up 15 % for Single Family Detached Homes

Park West is one of the most prolific subdivisions for home sales over the past 10 years. It offers buyers a wide variety of styles and prices. The amenities are outstanding. Homeowners can find almost everything they need within a few miles of their home.


Mount Pleasant Map shows Park West Access from Hwy 17N and Hwy 41
10 Year History Single Family Detached Homes Sales Park West
Park West homes sales were first reported by CTAR MLS in 1999 with 11 homes. Over a 10 year period (1999-2008) single family detached home sales in Park West have averaged 131 units per year. The highest year home sales was 228 in 2005. In 2009 YTD through March there have been 26 homes sold.

Figure 1: Homes SalesThe first quarter single family home sales in Park West increased 15.4% from the first quarter of 2008.There were 26 homes sold in the first quarter 2009 compared to 22 in 2008.

Figure 2: Sales VolumeThe Park West sales volume at $9,735,651 was $436,349 below 2008 1ST QT or -4.5%. The decrease in volume dollars was attributed to decreased home prices as seen in Figure 3 below.

Figure 3: List, Avg. Sales and Median Sold PriceAverage sales price dropped $85,779 (-22.3%) from $470,474 in 2008 to $384,695 in 2009 1ST QT. The median sold price at $328,750 was down $44,417 (-13.5%).

Figure 4: Price / Sq. Ft.The average price $/Square Foot from $165 to $146 from 2008 to 2009. This was a $19.00 drop (-12.8%).

Figure 5: % Sold Price of List PriceHomes in 2009 sold for 94.5% of the list price which was up +1.7% from 2008. This is partially attributed to the drop -24.4% in average list price during the same period.

Figure 6: Average Days on Market It took less days to sell a home in 2009 at 126 compared to 136 in the first quarter of 2008.

Figure 7: Current Inventory of Homes For SaleThe home inventory decreased from 136 in 2008 to 123 in 2009 1st QT.

Figure 8: Months Supply of Inventory at Current SalesAt the end of the first quarter 2009 there was 16 months of inventory which was down from 20 months in 2008.

In summary the Park West subdivision in Mount Pleasant (Charleston County) sold 15% more homes in the first quarter of 2009. The total sales volume was down due to a drop in the average and median sales price. In 2009 the average days on market was less and the supply of homes for sale decreased by 11% and the months supply of inventory was reduced by 24.5%.

Overall the real estate market is adjusting and sellers have lowered their average listing prices. The 15% increase in homes sold is significant in the current economy. The second quarter will show if we are at a turning point. Park West is a good area to study because it offers 131 homes sold per year on average in all price ranges and styles. From small starter homes to water front properties 3000+ square feet.

Tri-County Area's Most and Least Expensive Median Priced Homes for Sale

The Charleston tri-county area consists of 3 counties with 32 areas. The red chart below lists the various areas. The first 3 letters after the area number represents the county. There are other areas listed in the MLS but they are outside the tri-county area. The map below shows the 3 counties Charleston, Berkeley and Dorchester.



Figure 1: Most homes sold by MLS area (YTD 4/21/09)Mount Pleasant (Area 42) has the most homes for sale at 1435 followed by Summerville (Area 63) 1083 homes.


Figure 2: Most Expensive Median List Price Homes by MLS area (YTD 4/21/09)Sullivan's Island (Area 43) is known for its very expensive homes on the southeast coast. With a median listing price of $1,750,000. Sullivan's Island was $400,000 higher than Dewees Island (Area 46) and $750,000 higher than Isle of Palms (Area 44).

Figure 3: Least expensive median list price homes by MLS area (YTD 4/21/09)North Charleston's (Area 31) and Rural Berkeley County (Area 75) offers the least expensive homes in the tri-county area. Both areas had a median list price of $115,000.

Top 10 Price Ranges for Charleston Tri-County Area Homes

The CTAR MLS data confirms that over 80% of the homes sold in the Tri-County this year to date are under $300,000. The most popular range is $160,000 - $170,000 followed by $200,000 - $220,000. If your client has a home in these price ranges they should sell with in 104 days on average.

Figure 1: Top 10 price ranges for Charleston Tri-County area homes

Tri-County Area Condo and Townhouse Sales Down in First Quarter 2009

Single family attached home (condos and townhouses) sales in the first quarter were down -22.4% from the 1st QT of 2008 485 to 256 homes sold. Charleston County led with 167 homes sold followed by Berkeley 50 and Dorchester Counties 39 respectively. Overall the homes sold were down -75% from 1st QT 2005 to 2009 or 1023 to 256.

In summary the tri-county single family attached(condos and townhouses)homes had the following changes from the 1st QT 2008 to 1st QT 2009: Sales volume was $69,537,710 down -51.6, the average sales price was $271,364 down -40.9, median sold was $167,102 down -16.4%, home sold for 94.6% of the list price down -2.3%, the inventory of attached homes was 2,915 down -12.4% and the months inventory of available homes increased by +550%.

Charleston County led the tri-county area with 19 homes sold in Mount Peasant's Park West subdivision on Grey Marsh Rd, Bagley Dr, Basildon Rd, Queensgate Way, and Claremont St. The Crain Crossing subdivision in Charleston was the second largest with 16 townhouses sold on Benninington Dr.

2009 1st Quarter Home Sales Slowest Start in 10 Years! Is the Bottom Near?

The Charleston area CTAR MLS reported the lowest first quarter home sales in the past 10 years. Homes sales in the 1QT-1998 were 1516 units while 1QT-2009 had 1376. The best first quarter during the past 10 years was 3990 in 2006. The decline between 2006 first quarter and 2009 was -65.5%.

While homes sales dropped -38.8% from 1QT-2008 to 1QT-2009, the reduction in Median sold price was only -11.2% during the same period. The Median sold price increased by 2.5% between first quarters from 2005 and 2009.

The question that everyone is asking is when the market will reach the bottom. There have been some positive indications in recent weeks. CNN reported this week that the a few economists were predicting the economy to bottom within 3 months. Moody’s Economy.com predicts the housing market will bottom out by year end. Other good news from the Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended April 3 increased 4.7% to 1,250.6.

Let's take a look at the first quarter 2009 for the Charleston area market.

Figure 1: 10-Year Monthly Home Sales The past decade had a 4 year period of stability, 4 years of rapid growth and 3 years of accelerated decline. 2009 first quarter home sales dropped to a 10 year low. First quarter home sales fell below the 1516 units reported in 1998 to 1376 in 2009.

Figure 2: 5-Year Homes Sales Quarterly Over the past five years the first quarter of each year had the lowest home sales followed by the second quarters highest units sold. The 2009 second quarter growth will be an indicator of weather the bottom is in sight.

Figure 3: Comparison 1St Qt Home Sales 2005-2009 Home sales fell from 3869 to 1376 (-64%) between 1st Qt 2005 to 1st Qt 2009.

Figure 4: 5-Year Volume Sales per Quarter
Volume sales dropped from $978,652,565 in first quarter 2005 to $354,941,995 first quarter of 2009.

Figure 5: Comparison 1St Qt Volume Sales 2005-2009
Volume sales dropped -47.6% between first quarter of 2008 and 2009.

Figure 6: 5-Year Average List, Average Sold and Median PriceList price, average sold price and median sold price all declined in the first quarters of 2008 and 2009.

Figure 7: Comparison 1St Qt 2005-2009 Average List, Sold and Median Prices
From the first quarter 2008 to 2009 the list price dropped -12.7%, average sale price dropped -14.4% and the median price declined -11.5%.


Figure 8: Comparison 1St Qt 2005-2009 average sales price as a percent of list priceThe percent sold to list price declined in the first quarters of 2008 and 2009 by 0.7% and -2% respectively. The decrease between 2005 and 2009 was -4.3% from .982 to .939.


Figure 9:1QT Days on Market Comparision 2005-2009 First Quarter days on market reached 118 in 2009.


Figure 10: Comparison 1St Qt 2005-2009 Current Inventory
For the last 8 quarters there has been an inventory of between 11,000-12,000 homes.

Figure 11: Comparison 1St Qt 2005-2009 Months Inventory In the first quarter 2009 there was a 24 month home inventory.

In summary the first quarter of 2009 reported the worst start in 10 years, the volume was $354,941,995 down -47%, averages sold price dropped -14.7% to $257,531, the sold to listing ratio dropped -2%to 93.9%, days on the market reached 118 up from 104 in 2008, the current inventory is around 11,000 units and there is a 24 month supply of homes at the current demand.

Overall it is the best buyers market in the last decade offering interest rates below 5% for 30 year fixed mortgages, tax incentives for first time buyers, low average sale and median sold prices, high inventory of new construction, an abundance of foreclosures in all price ranges, and 11,000 sellers motivated to sell their homes.

There have been some positive signs in the housing market recently but I think the housing market will not bottom out until the first quarter of 2010.

Charleston Tri-County Percent Growth

In my previous posting Charleston Tri-County Area Real Estate Market Analysis, I looked at the tri-county from strickly numbers view. It showed that on average Charleston County had the most units sold, largest sales volume, biggest inventory and highest priced home. The last posting did not address the fastest developing counties in the Charleston tri-county area. Let's now take a look at the Growth of the counties over the past 10 years. Since the numbers are much larger for Charleston county, I indexed the figures to 1998 = 100.

(For example in figure 12: below in 1998 Berkeley County sold 1,348 units. If 1,348 = 100% and in 1999 the units increased to 1,686 or 125%. This means that the units had a growth of 25% from 1989 to 1999. In Charleston County 4,805=100% units were sold in 1998 and 4,578 in 1999. This resulted in a decrease to 95% or 5% decline from 1998 to 1999.)


Figure 12: Charleston Tri-County Unit Sales Growth
Charleston County has the most units sales with 51% in 2008 but Berkeley County had the strongest growth in unit sales in the tri-county area over the past 10 years followed by Dorchester and Charleston counties.

Figure 13: Charleston Tri-County Sales Volume Growth

Berkeley County led the tri-county volume dollar growth with a high in 2006 of 628% growth from 1998-2006 (6.28 times the 1998 figure). In 2008 Berkeley County lead with an accumulative growth of 349% compared to Dorchester County 221% and Charleston County 188% respectively for 1998-2008.

Figure 14: Charleston Tri-County Average Sales Growth

Charleston and Berkeley had an accumulative average sales dollar growth of 203% from 1998-2008. Dorchester grew 168% during the same period.

Figure 15: Charleston Tri-County Unit Inventory Growth

Charleston County had the largest unit inventory growth at 413%. The Charleston County Inventory grew from 144% to 411% from 2005-2007. Dorchester County had a more gradual unit inventory increase 286%.

Figure 16: Charleston Tri-County Months Inventory Growth

Charleston County had 18.5 months of inventory at the end of 2008 and led the tri-county area with a growth of 448% from 1998-2008.

It is clear from the study that the tri-county area offers a home that will fit any buyer or sellers needs.

Charleston Tri-County Area Real Estate Market Analysis

The Charleston tri-county area continued to attract new residents to the desirable low country life style. The area population grew by 14,000 residents between the summers of 2007-2008. Many new residents moved south from the colder northeastern states. The study shows the strength of the Charleston area.

Below is a study of the tri-county area and comparison of the Charleston, Berkeley and Dorchester counties. In 2008 Charleston County was the largest county with 51% of the 8.691 units sold and 65% of the $2,550,989,048 sales volume. Berkeley County leads the tri-county area with highest percent growth in unit and volume dollar sales. Dorchester County is slightly smaller the Berkeley county in actual units and volume sales but has a higher percent growth than Charleston County. Dorchester County offers buyers the lowest average home prices in the tri-county area.

Figure 1: Charleston Tri-County Area Map

Figure 2: Charleston Tri-County Home Sales

 

There were 8,691 properties (units) sold in the tri-county area in 2008. Charleston County represented 4,436 units (51%), while Berkeley County had 2,317 (27%) and Dorchester county 1,938 (22%) respectively. In 2005 Charleston County reached a record high of 9,826 units.

Figure 3: Charleston Tri-County Volume Sales

 

The tri-county area reached a sales volume high of $4,863,562,683 in 2005 and by 2008 fell 52% to $2,550,989,048. Charleston County represented 65% ($1,667,510,294) of the volume as Berkeley County 20% ($498,560,101) and Dorchester County 15% ($384,918,653) correspondingly. Note that Charleston peaked in 2005 whereas Dorchester and Berkeley counties peaked in 2006.

Figure 4: Charleston Tri-County Average List Price

The decline in unit and volume sales did not hinder the average list price rise in 2007 to a high of $310,671 for the tri-county area. In 2008 the average list price fell only -2% to $307,623. In Charleston County the average list price increased by 1.2% to $397,773. Berkeley and Dorchester counties average list price dropped -3.4% and -6.8% respectively. In general, the Charleston County sellers were not willing to reduce their list price even though unit sales had a drastic decrease.

Figure 5: Charleston Tri-County Average Sold Price

The tri-county average sold price only declined by -2.2% between 2007 and 2008. Charleston County price remained constant at $375,904 down only -0.3%. The average prices in the tri-county area offers buyers a wide range of home choices. Compared to other areas in the USA, the Charleston area was one of America's 25 strongest housing markets listed in Forbes.

Figure 6: Charleston Tri-County Median Sold Price

The tri-county median sold price grew from $122,900 (1998) to $209,081 in 2007. There was a decrease in the tri-county to $201,100 (-3.9%) in 2008. Charleston County’s median price grew from $247,000 to $252,000 between 2007 and 2008. Berkeley and Dorchester declined in 2008 -5% and -7.3% respectively after solid growth since 1998

Figure 7: Charleston Tri-County Price/ Sq Ft

The tri-county area had an average of $152/$ Sq ft in 2008. Dorchester County had the lowest price per Sq Ft at $104 followed by Berkeley County at $112 and Charleston County at $194. (Charleston County higher cost in 2005 is probably attributed to the luxury condominium market.)

Figure 8: Charleston Tri-County % Sold of List Price

In 2008 the average sold price was 95.4% of the list price. (It should be noted that there have been changes by the MLS in the way sold % / list price is calculated. 2008incorporates the reporting changes).

Figure 9: Charleston Tri-County Average DOM


The average days on market for properties sold in 2008 were 102 days. Berkeley County homes sold in 86 days on average. Dorchester County was next with an average of 90 DOM and then Charleston County homes with an average of 116 DOM.

Figure 10: Charleston Tri-County Current Unit Inventory

Charleston County accounts for 6,830 (64%) of the tri-county 10,672 units inventory in 2008. Dorchester and Berkeley account for 1,829 and 2,013 units respectively.

Figure 11: Charleston Tri-County Months Inventory

In 2008 the average months inventory was 14.7 month. Charleston had an 18.5 month supply in 2008. Dorchester had only 11.3 and Berkeley had 10.4 months inventory correspondingly. Charleston County had a tremendous increase in months inventory between 2005 and 2008.

In the next posting I will look at the percentage growth of the counties in the Charleston tri-county area.